Nothing has really changed with regards to the election this past week.  Obama continues to hold a decent lead in the polls.  It is hard to see how McCain can win the election with economic situation as it is, and most of the problems easily tied to the Bush administration and the Republican Party.  While one can make the intellectual argument that the Congressional Democrats are equally responsible for the economic problems and Alan Greenspan blew it as the head of the Federal Reserve a few years ago, the reality is that the Bush team has been in charge for eight years and must take the bulk of the responsibility.  I am sure McCain will compete to the last hour of the campaign but it appears that Barrack Obama can cruise in with a solid victory unless McCain finds some way to create a hail Mary play very soon.

Obama's victory will be historic of course and many will mark his swearing in as President of the United States as the beginning of a new age in US history.  It will be hard to argue this point.  The Democrats will be rejoicing as they regain a level of political power (the President and decisive majorities in the House and Senate) they have not had since Lyndon Johnson was President in the late 1960s (I think this is correct but I did not check all the numbers).

With all of the negative campaigning and the tough economic times there is one bright light in an overall dark environment.  Sarah Pallin has clearly created more fun in this campaign that any political personality in a long time.  This very attractive mother of five children with her unique speech patterns has turned out to be a person most of us can really like.  We may not agree with her political views or think she is truly qualified to be Vice President in January 2009 but we must agree that she is one heck of a good sport and interesting person. 

I watched Elisabeth Hasselbeck of the TV show The View introduce Gov. Pallin at a speaking engagement in Tampa at noon today.  While the material was totally political I have to say that both ladies demonstrated some of the best campaign humor I have seen outside of Saturday Night Live.  Sarah Pallin has a wonderful smile that she seems able to present to the public at every event.  It is really nice to see someone from the political world able to express themselves while they smile and seem to have a very calm demeanor.

I love the $150,000 wardrobe issue of the past week or so.  Any woman in the media that is making public appearances every day and needs to look totally sharp every minute before the camera would have a stylist dressing them every day.  All the women on daily TV shows have rooms full of clothes just like Sarah has for the campaign.  This issue only applies to women.  Men have to look decent on TV and in public appearances but the standards are completely different for a high profile woman.  If she didn't have a great wardrobe she would be highly criticized.  The fact that this issue is being discussed is sexist in every regard.  I think Sarah has handled it very well.

I also have to tip my cap to Tina Fey and the gang at Saturday Night Live.  Their political skits featuring Tina as Sarah Pallin have been fabulous.  The members of the Saturday Night Live cast that are doing all of the impersonations of the politicians have been great and deserve their high ratings and highly visited web site this season.   Fortunately, Tina can return to her job on 30 Rock and a less stressful schedule after the election when Sarah returns to her job as governor of Alaska.

However,  I would not be surprised if Tina gets to reprise her role as Sarah Pallin at sometime in the future.  If Sarah wants to continue on the national stage after the election she will have the opportunity.

That is all for now.  Have a good week.

TPM

The debates are over.  They really didn't impact the Presidential race.  The financial and economic situation is so bad it seems impossible for McCain to defeat Obama.  The Republicans may lose big in the House and Senate as well.  We all need to get ready to live in a more left leaning country in the years to come.  I hope we can keep some purple in the political picture.

TPM

The past week was a very tough one for everyone holding financial assets in the US and many other countries around the world.  Most stocks crashed and many different types of debt securities were down significantly.  Many individuals and financial firms were liquidating their investments to generate cash to repay debt or return funds to their investors.  I haven't seen the numbers yet but I assume there was tremendous pressure on investors using margin and they experienced massive amounts of margin calls and forced liquidation of their investments.  It is likely this was a major contributor to the speed and extent of the market decline.

It has been amusing to some extent to watch the experts try to explain what happened, why it happened and approaches to fixing the problem.  There are very few people that can actually connect the dots between all the pieces of the crash correctly.  None of the people that know and can explain the reality of the situation are showing up on TV and explaining the full picture to the world.  This is one of those situations where no one wants to hear the truth or the facts of the situation.  They just want the financial pain to go away as soon as possible.

I could spend a lot energy discussing the financial aspects of the crash.  But that will have to wait for another day.  Since we are less than one month before the election I think I should place my primary focus there.  However,  I will make one point.  The greatest government deficits in the history of the world are coming to the US in 2009 and the years ahead.  At the urging of the new President (no matter who is elected) and the Congress of the United States the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve will create trillions of dollars out of nothing in their efforts to make the pain of the crash for the US population go away.  I suggest that we all prepare for the impact of this massive influx of fiat currency.

If Barrack Obama can't win the Presidential election in this environment his effort to be elected President will go down as the greatest political campaign failure in history.  While it may be unfair to place all of the blame for the market crash and negative impact on the economy on the Bush administration, the reality is that the Republicans have controlled the executive branch of our government for the past eight years.  The Bush administration and the Republican party have guided the country into this fiasco.  They must take responsibility for their actions or lack of actions in certain aspects of the situation.

I just don't see how John McCain can overcome the negativity that comes from being a Republican in this environment.  I don't think it makes any difference which of the two candidates will be elected from a financial market perspective.  The actions of the government will not be materially different no matter which man is elected. 

While I continue to believe that John McCain is the better candidate we all need to prepare ourselves for an Obama administration.  The Democrats will likely have complete control of our government after the election.  I shudder when I think about it.  2009 will bring a new chapter to the history book of the US.  Don't be surprised if the the 2009 chapter has some very different story lines from the past.

TPM

There is no question Joe Biden won his debate with Sarah Palin tonight by any substantive measure.  Joe is a slick experienced Washington politician that knows how to interact with the Washington media.  The rapid fire, policy wonk Q & A format which the media seems to love but has no relevance to making actual  executive decisions or governing was well suited to Biden's experience.  Biden performed very well.

Palin is a novice on the national stage and inexperienced in responding to these types of questions in rapid fire form.  She exceeded the expectations of many people but she was clearly over-matched in this format.  The policy wonks of the media establishment won't give her a high grade for her performance.  There is no doubt however that she is one of the "people" and not part of the Washington establishment.  She is much closer to the real world that governs most people's lives than the others on the national tickets.  There is no doubt she is personable and has great potential.  But she could not compete effectively tonight with Biden in this debate format.

The real decision for the voter is pretty simple.  Do we want to totally repudiate the Republican Party and eight years of the Bush Administration by electing an inexperienced liberal Senator, Obama with a liberal long term Washington insider, Biden, as his VP?  Or do we place our bets on a maverick moderately conservative long term Washington insider, McCain, with a number of ties to the Bush administration that has a young conservative woman that has some special qualities that connect with the electorate as his VP.  This is a very difficult decision.

It is very hard for me to support the ultra liberal views of Obama and Biden.  It is getting harder and harder for McCain to win this election as the nation's current financial "crisis" looms over the election process.  McCain's ties to Bush are hard to overcome and get elected in the current environment.

We have a few more weeks to make a final decision.

TPM